Sinner Heavy Favorite Against Bublik as US Open Reaches Round of 16

Jannik Sinner enters Monday night’s round-of-16 match at the US Open as a heavy favorite to advance to the quarterfinals, with bookmakers listing the world No. 1 and defending champion at roughly -1400 against Alexander Bublik.

The head-to-head record favors the Italian, 4-2, but Bublik has been a thorn in Sinner’s side recently, claiming two of the last three meetings and defeating Sinner at the ATP Halle grass-court event in June. That recent history, combined with Bublik’s unorthodox game, has kept interest high despite the lopsided betting line.

Sinner’s run through the 2025 US Open has been marked by consistent serving, steady defense and the sort of baseline control that has made him the year’s top-ranked player. Tournament observers note his ability to limit free points and extend rallies until opponents falter, traits that helped him capture the title last year and that have sustained him through the early rounds this fortnight.

Bublik presents a contrasting challenge. The Kazakh player is noted for a powerful serve, varied shot-making and a willingness to mix pace and spin to disrupt rhythm. Those attributes make him a difficult matchup for any top player on a given day, and his recent wins over Sinner demonstrate his capacity to execute under pressure.

Match dynamics are likely to hinge on serve returns and unforced errors. Sinner’s defensive retrievals and steadiness from the baseline are assets on the hard-court surface at Flushing Meadows, while Bublik’s best chance is to shorten points with big serves and aggressive ball-striking to prevent Sinner from settling into long exchanges.

Bettors and analysts pointing to the -1400 line emphasize that Bublik must be near his peak to force an upset. In recent tour play, Sinner’s serving has been unusually reliable and his tactical discipline pronounced, reducing pathways for opponents to exploit. Conversely, Bublik’s game produces higher variance: when it clicks, he can trouble top-10 players; when it does not, unforced errors accumulate.

The match will also be watched for its implications inside the tournament draw. A Sinner victory would secure consecutive deep runs at the US Open and maintain his status as the favorite to repeat, while a Bublik upset would open the bottom half of the draw and mark a significant result for the Kazakh player at a Grand Slam.

Both players spoke briefly to media in the lead-up to the match, with Sinner reiterating his focus on routine and execution and Bublik emphasizing his readiness to bring his full repertoire to the court. The encounter on Monday night will test whether Bublik can translate his recent successes against Sinner into another high-stakes win, or whether Sinner’s consistency and form will carry him into the quarterfinals.

Officials scheduled the match for prime evening hours, and both players are expected to take the court on the tournament’s show court. With the betting market heavily favoring Sinner, the narrative entering play centers on whether Bublik’s flair and unpredictability can overcome the statistical and stylistic advantages held by the top seed.