Sabalenka’s US Open semi against Pegula underlines rare consistency and recurring late-stage fragility
World number one Aryna Sabalenka has reached 12 of the last 13 Grand Slam semi-finals but has converted only three into major titles as she defends her US Open crown
Aryna Sabalenka will face Jessica Pegula in the US Open women's semi-final at Flushing Meadows on Thursday in a repeat of last year's final, a matchup that highlights the Belarusian's near-unrivalled run of consistency at the Grand Slam level and the unanswered question of whether she can deliver when it matters most.
The world number one and defending champion has reached 12 semi-finals in her past 13 major tournaments, a run few players in the women's game can match. Yet only three of those deep runs have resulted in Grand Slam titles, and none of her campaigns at this year's majors concluded with a trophy. The semi-final in New York offers another opportunity to add to her collection.
Sabalenka's game is built on power that translates across surfaces, producing a level of baseline dominance that has repeatedly carried her into the latter stages of majors. That machine-like consistency, however, has been punctured at critical junctures by sudden dips in form. In recent seasons she has produced erratic stretches at the most consequential moments, culminating in defeats in a string of finals and semi-finals.
This season those late-stage lapses cost her at the Australian Open final, the French Open final and the Wimbledon semi-finals, where she was unable to convert strong tournament form into another major crown. Tournament organisers and broadcasters have highlighted the contrast between Sabalenka's regular deep runs and the relatively small number of titles that have followed.
The semi-final against Pegula — scheduled for 5 September at Flushing Meadows — is being covered on live radio and online, with BBC coverage including live radio commentary on 5 Live Sports Extra and BBC Sounds, and live text commentary on the BBC Sport website and app.
Pegula, the opponent in a replay of last year's championship match, presents a familiar challenge. For Sabalenka, the meeting is both a defence of the title she won at Flushing Meadows and another test of whether her sustained presence in the late rounds of majors can more regularly culminate in trophies. Analysts and fans will watch to see if the world number one can combine her high level of consistency with the steadiness required to prevail in the sport's biggest moments.