Sabalenka Faces Pegula in U.S. Open Semifinal as Home Crowd Lines Up Behind the American

Aryna Sabalenka will meet Jessica Pegula in Thursday’s U.S. Open semifinal at Arthur Ashe Stadium, where the world No. 1 must contend not only with a familiar opponent but also with a pro-American crowd that figures to back Pegula.

Sabalenka, 27, arrives at the semifinal with recent evidence of improved composure in big-match environments. The Belarusian defeated Pegula in last year’s U.S. Open final, 7-5, 7-5, on the same Arthur Ashe Stadium court, and she is a two-time Australian Open champion. Pegula, meanwhile, is bidding for a breakthrough at a major: this is only the second time in her career she has reached a Grand Slam semifinal.

Tournament observers say the crowd will be an important variable. Pegula, an American, is likely to receive vocal support throughout the match on Arthur Ashe, a factor that has troubled some players in the past. Sabalenka has shown progress in handling pressure since earlier in her career, and her straight-set victory over Pegula in last year’s final is a recent example of her ability to perform under a charged atmosphere.

Pegula’s run to the final four represents a significant achievement for the 31-year-old American, who has long been among the tour’s most consistent players but has seen Grand Slam trophies elude her. Entering the semifinal, she faces the twin challenges of attempting to overcome a player ranked higher and doing so in front of a crowd inclined to favor the U.S. hope.

Both players bring different strengths to the matchup. Sabalenka’s power and aggressive baseline game have helped her capture major titles and maintain the top ranking, while Pegula’s steady, tactical play and comfort on hard courts have underpinned her steady climb into the sport’s elite. Their prior meeting in the 2024 final provides a recent blueprint, but the environment and form on the day will be decisive.

Coaches and analysts pointed to Sabalenka’s recent mental resilience as a key development. That improvement, coupled with her pedigree at the highest level, gives her a level of confidence heading into the semifinal. Pegula’s supporters will hope home-court energy and her own tactical adjustments can tilt the balance.

The outcome will determine one finalist for the 2025 U.S. Open women’s singles title and set up a championship match on Arthur Ashe Stadium. With two different narratives — Sabalenka defending a recent win over her opponent and Pegula seeking a first major final victory on home soil — the semifinal figures to be a focal point of Thursday’s schedule.